In 2009, I reviewed the issue of
screening mammograms and supported the US Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation
that women of average risk should start mammograms at age 50 and continue
mammography every 2 years until age 75. I have recommended mammograms
with the caveat that as new information is available, I would reassess the best
strategy. New information casts further doubt as to the safety and
effectiveness of mammography as a screen for breast cancer.
Let me start off by saying the obvious,
we all want to reduce the rate of breast cancer. If cancer cannot be
avoided, we want to improve the outcome through earlier detection.
Objectively thinking through the issue
of breast cancer screening with mammograms is no easy task. Screening
mammograms have been promoted far more than any other diagnostic test.
Particularly in the United States, breast cancer screening is an emotionally,
politically and economically charged issue. Powerful forces are in place
which put pressure on physicians and women to promote mammography but are we
helping women?
The findings and conclusions of numerous
studies are not at all intuitive or obvious. To digest this information, you
will want to set aside what seems to be “obviously” correct and consider the
facts carefully.
What Makes For a Good
Screening Test?
To understand the issue of screening
mammograms, it is helpful to back up and look at what makes for a good
screening test. Screening should meet several criteria:
· The procedure should allow early detection of cancers destined to
cause death. By diagnosing the cancers earlier - screening should be associated
with better outcomes.
· The procedure should have a high safety profile.
An
effective screening approach should show early disease rates go up in an amount
equal to the decline in late disease. Effective screening tools such as
Pap smears for cervical cancer and colonoscopies for colon cancer demonstrate
the expected increase in early disease with a corresponding drop in late
disease. We will see this is not the case with screening mammograms.
Landmark Study
The November 22, 2012 New England
Journal of Medicine landmark article “Effect of
Three Decades of Screening Mammography on Breast-Cancer Incidence” by Archie
Bleyer, M.D., and H. Gilbert Welch, M.D., M.P.H. looked at an enormous amount
of federal data on screening mammography compiled from the mid-1970s through
2008.
Key Study Findings
· The rate of diagnosing breast cancer in early stages increased by
200% with screening mammography.
· However, the rate of late stage cancer did not drop significantly
in the screened group. Metastatic disease was completely unchanged –
screening did not prevent this.
This
thorough review confirmed what numerous other studies have pointed to:
screening mammograms do not make much of a difference in preventing late stage
cancer. They are not achieving their main goal which is to prevent cancer
deaths.
Overdiagnosis
of “harmless” cancer cells
You may be
thinking that any chance of improvement would justify doing a mammogram.
This would be true if there were no downside to screening. While the breast
cancer “overdiagnosis” problem has been discussed in the medical articles for
over a decade, this issue is rarely understood and discussed even among
physicians.
While it
seems obvious that it is a good thing to find cancer cells and get rid of them,
the studies show this is not always so. Our bodies often contain cancer
cells that would have never effected out lives. When we go looking for
the early cancers, we often find what I am going to call harmless cancers
– cancer which would never have caused disease. We also find some of the bad
cancers - destined to cause disease and potential death.
The problem
is that mammograms appear much better at diagnosing harmless cancers
than early bad cancers. Furthermore, at this time, once cancer is
diagnosed there is no way to tell whether it is likely to cause disease or
not. As a result of screening mammograms, the overdiagnosis of cancer
cells were found and treated in more than 1.3 million women over the past 3
decades. In 2008, 70,000 women were overdiagnosed with breast
cancer. This amounts to almost 1/3 of breast cancers diagnosed in women 40
years of age and older.
Overdiagnosis
is not benign: These women
overdiagnosed with breast cancer gained nothing by their treatment. They
would have enjoyed living their lives never being affected by breast cancer.
The cancer would have never materialized as a diagnosis or health
concern.
Overdiagnosis causes overtreatment with
the attendant emotional stress of the cancer diagnosis, unnecessary treatment
such as surgery, radiation & chemotherapy and all the potential
complications. While treatment of early stage cancer is safer than
treatment of late stage cancer, this overtreatment can sometimes cause serious
complications and even death.
Conclusions
The data shows 2 important problems
with screening mammography:
· Screening mammograms fail the most important criteria for
screening: they fail to substantially reduce late stage disease. In fact, from
1975 to 2008 the rate of metastatic breast cancer was unchanged.
· Screening mammography causes many women to become cancer patients
who would not have been had they not been screened.
**I would want to make sure all readers
recognize that all breast masses should be carefully evaluated. The above
negative findings are for screening mammograms– not diagnostic mammograms used
to evaluate lumps/masses. If a woman has a breast lump/mass – it definitely
should be evaluated with mammograms, ultrasound and when indicated, biopsy**
The NEJM article prompted a discussion over which of the following
strategies doctors should recommend:
Option 1: Recommend
Screening Mammography Starting at the Age of 40
Option 2: Recommend
Screening Mammography Starting at the Age of 50
Option 3: Do
Not Recommend Screening Mammography
The fact that option 3 is on the table speaks volumes. The
pressure to do screening mammograms is very intense. For a prestigious
journal to discuss this as a reasonable option reflects a large body of
evidence that screening mammography has very limited benefit and significant
problems.
The preponderance of the evidence we have gathered in many
different countries and by many different groups show disappointing results
with screening mammograms. While the exact findings vary, women need to
be aware that screening breast mammography is poor at picking up important
cancers and clearly results in a great deal of overdiagnosis and overtreatment.
As much as we all want a good tool to reduce breast cancer death, screening
mammograms do not fill this role well.
Should I have screening mammograms?
Since screening mammograms are not very
effective or accurate, missing most important cancers and diagnosing many
unimportant ones, I lean toward option 3 of not recommending mammography.
I encourage you to consider the best statistics we have and make a decision
based on your assessment of the benefit versus risk:
· We are weighing a low benefit of 0-10% in the
reduction in late stage cancers
versus
· A significant risk of overdiagnosis. The
harm of overdiagnosis includes:
·
emotional stress
·
pain and potential
complications from testing
·
complications of the
cancer treatments (surgery, chemotherapy, hormonal blockers, radiation) ranging from mild issues to severe
impairment and death
· The pain involved with screening mammograms
· The stress of screening mammograms, waiting for
the results, needing additional studies and biopsies.
· Possible x-ray induced cancer. X-rays
involved in mammograms have a small but definite risk of causing cancers –
especially when you start early and have yearly studies
This is a personal decision but the case for the often stated
“screening breast mammography save lives” is much weaker than most
realize. You may choose to get screening mammograms but please do so
knowing there is clear evidence that screening is associated with significant
harm coming from the many cases which involve finding cancerous cells that
would have never affected your life.
The Cochrane Review as a tool to make your decision
When I did medical missions overseas in Central Asia, I worked in
the area of medical development with consultants with the World Health
Organization (WHO) to make recommendations. We were trying to focus on
what really mattered, what really made a difference. It was not uncommon
to discuss the findings of the Cochrane Reviews. The Cochrane Review is
internationally recognized as a leading source of quality evidence-based health
assessments. Because the Cochrane Review is international, it is not
easily influenced by political and local economic factors. I would urge
you to consider the Cochrane Reviews’ stance on screening mammograms:
Cochrane Review 2008
·
Initially in 2008, their summary was that since mammography had
both benefits and harms, either way – having it done or not having it done was
reasonable.
·
At the time they estimated that if 2000 women were screened
regularly for 10 years, one will benefit from the screening by avoiding dying
from breast cancer.
·
At the same time, 10 healthy women would unnecessarily become
cancer patients and will be treated unnecessarily. These women will have either
a part of their breast or the whole breast removed and often receive radiation
therapy and sometimes chemotherapy.
·
Furthermore, about 200 healthy women will experience a false
alarm. The psychological strain women experience from false alarms can be
severe.
Cochrane
Review Revised Position
·
Since the trials used to accumulate the above statistic were
performed, treatment of breast cancer has improved considerably. When
improved treatment of breast cancer is factored in, it indicates mammography
screening may no longer be effective in reducing the risk of dying from breast
cancer.
·
Screening produces patients with breast cancer from among healthy
women who would never have developed symptoms of breast cancer. Treatment of
these healthy women increases their risk of dying, e.g. from heart disease and
cancer.
·
It no longer seems reasonable to recommend mammograms for breast
cancer screening. In fact, by avoiding going to screening, a woman will lower
her risk of getting a breast cancer diagnosis.
·
However, despite this, some women might still wish to go to
screening. But women should know that screening produces patients with breast
cancer from among healthy women who would never have developed symptoms of
breast cancer. Treatment of these healthy women increases their risk of dying,
e.g. from heart disease and cancer.
Source: Cochrane review: Screening for breast cancer with mammography http://www.cochrane.dk/screening/index-en.htm
Source: Cochrane review: Screening for breast cancer with mammography http://www.cochrane.dk/screening/index-en.htm
Better Approaches
To continue to do the same thing over and over again, expecting
different results, is one definition of insanity. Moving forward, we need
better tools. Deadly cancers are routinely missed with mammograms and
mammograms pick up too many unimportant cancers.
Although clear benefit is lacking – it seems prudent to do
self-breast exams as well as have your doctor perform regular breast
exams. Also, I repeat, you should definitely have a breast mass
evaluated with all appropriate tools including mammograms (when done to
evaluate a lump, this is called a diagnostic mammogram rather than a screening
mammogram).
What might work instead of screening mammograms? Screening with
ultrasound and breast thermography are promising. However, we will only
know if they really help when long term rigorous studies done on them.
Read more about breast thermography in my previous posts in the January & November 2009 blog posts.
To your health!
Don Ellsworth, M.D.
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Disclaimer:
The information provided should not be construed as personal medical
advice or instruction. No action should be taken based solely on the
contents of this site. Readers should consult appropriate health professionals
on any matter relating to their health and well-being. The information and
opinions provided here are believed to be accurate and sound, based on my
best judgment and research. I cannot assume responsibility for any possible
errors or omissions.
References and further
reading
Effect of Three Decades of Screening Mammography on Breast-Cancer
Incidence
Archie Bleyer, M.D., and H. Gilbert Welch, M.D., M.P.H.
N Engl J Med 2012; 367:1998-2005 November 22, 2012 http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1206809/
Roundup of some reactions to NEJM
mammography overdiagnosis analysis http://www.healthnewsreview.org/2012/11/roundup-of-some-reactions-to-nejm-mammography-overdiagnosis-analysis/
Cochrane Review:
